Sheldon Silver, New York State’s iconic Assembly Speaker, was forced to resign after being charged with serious federal corruption charges. Bronx Democrat Carl Heastie is going to ascend to the position sometime on Tuesday, after his last competitor, Queens Assemblywoman Catherine Nolan, dropped out of the race to succeed Silver.
I tweeted on Saturday that I was surprised by this turn of events. This was after another competitor, Democratic Assembly Majority Leader Joseph Morelle (apparently the favored candidate of Governor Cuomo), had dropped out of the race.
I was surprised because Carl Heastie is fairly extreme ideologically. Yet almost all the attention in the discussion about the speaker’s succession has been about race, potential ethical issues, and a real or imagined power play between Governor Cuomo and Mayor de Blasio.
Our state legislative ideology data set provides me with the data for this post. The current release of the data has data into 2013, but we are currently working on extending that data set into 2015. I don’t have the newest members serving in 2015, but they are relatively few as the chamber isn’t very competitive. So I’m just using the scores and composition of the chamber as of 2014.
Sheldon Silver is in the most liberal fifth of his party in the Assembly. Nolan has basically the same ideological profile as Silver. In contrast, Morelle is a little to the right of the median Democrat. Carl Heastie, on the other hand, is the fifth most liberal Democrat (only Weinstein, Rosenthal, Glick, and Robinson to his left) in the Assembly, out of a total of 106. And it’s not like Silver, Nolan, or even Morelle are hardline conservatives. The New York State Democratic party is amongst the most liberal in the country, alongside California and Vermont’s Democrats.
This is a puzzle because I’d expect New York Democrats to pick someone closer to their ideological center. This should be due, crudely speaking, to the median voter theorem. A simple majority-rule election should have the property of privileging centrist candidates. Just look at the 113th Congress US House leadership team of John Boehner, Eric Cantor and Kevin McCarty, who were just about at the center of their party in the House.
A recent paper by Stephen Jessee and Neil Malhotra shows empirical evidence for this notion: party leaders in Congress tend to be not very far from the center, especially in comparison to their competitors for the offices (Democrats do shade somewhat to the left and Republicans to the right of their party medians). In this case, however, the winning candidate is especially far relative to not only the party as a whole, but in comparison to his announced competitors.
What’s going on here? Are states that different from Congress? Or is something peculiar about New York in particular? I’m not sure, but events like this get me thinking about new research projects …